Hong Kong Property: Bull Case Scenario Reached

The widely watched Centa-City Leading index reached another new high. From the end of last year to now, overall home prices have risen 11% in less than 3 months, within the range of bull case scenario I set out in my forecast for 2011 (i.e. rising 10-15%), and from the bottom in late 2008, home prices in Hong Kong have risen by 73%. Note that the latest data point has not reflected the impact of mortgage interest rates increase and the Japan’s earthquake, and those will be reflected in next week’s figures.

Source: Centaline

At the present moment, I think home prices will be hovering around the current level in the coming weeks or months, and will have chance to touch 100, and I am not revising my view upward after it has already reached my bull case scenario. In fact, because the risk and reward balance has become unfavourable, I have called the beginning of the end of the current bull market, and I have highlighted some of the reasons why I now hold a negative view.

For more news and analysis, visit Also sprach Analyst. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Get our daily email update FOR FREE!

About Zarathustra

Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.