China new home prices rose in 49 cities in July18 August, 2012, 17:07. Posted by Zarathustra
Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China show that new home prices in 49 of 70 major cities rose in July.
New home prices rose on a month-on-month basis in 49 cities, flat in 11 cities, and fell in 9 cities. On a year-on-year basis, majority of cities (58) recorded falling prices. For existing home, prices rose on a month-on-month basis in 38 cities, flat in 12 cities, and fell in 20%. On a year-on-year basis, majority of cities (59) recorded falling prices.
Although National Bureau of Statistics’ home prices data are not regarded as reliable, they confirm what other private sector data as well as anecdotal evidence that real estate activities have picked up in the recently months.
The table below shows that detailed month-on-month changes of new home prices in 70 cities. The redder the cells are, the more prices fell. Likewise, the more green the cells are, the more prices rose.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (Click to enlarge)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Recent anecdotes and statistics from property agencies suggest that real estate market activities might have started slowing again in August. Since the June data were published, we suggested that the data points leave policymakers in a dilemma as they face slowing economic growth, which calls for more easing, and the fear of sharp rebound in home prices, which calls for tightening. The July data, if anything, suggest that the dilemma got worse. As a result, the central bank has not done anything significant despite the market calling for rate cuts and/or reduction of reserve requirement ratio almost on a weekly basis. We reiterate our view that monetary easing and stimulus, if any, will be behind the curve and cautious as the rebound in real estate prices appears to be a concern (although falling prices will not be great news for the economy either).