Global Economy
This website, first and foremost, is about Global Finance and Economics from a somehow peculiar vantage point as a “Hongkonger”. This page lists out some of the best articles on global economy and finance on this website ever written. Here you will find articles mostly concerned with the developed economies, as you will find another page for emerging economies (with more focus on China). This pages will be updated as new relevant articles are added, so it will be worth checking out here from time to time.
HOT: The World in 2030: Super-Cycle or Grey Age?
Are the next 20 years be a Super-cycle of strong global growth, or a Grey Age of below-average returns of most asset classes? Here I argue that the global economy is headed to an era which we will experience strong growth only in selected emerging economies with strong demographic advantages, while the rest of the world will have below-average growth, and short business-cycles.
Others
Perhaps a recession is the only option for China
As inflationary pressure is mounting in China, I took a look at the fight against inflation in the United States in the early 1980s. Looking at the tactics Paul Volcker employed, I argued that China may need to deliberately create a deep recession in order to bring inflation under control.
The Biggest Risk in the Global Economy
Forget about the United States. These days the biggest risk is in emerging markets. In this series of 3 articles, I explained why China is probably posing the biggest risk to the world economy
The Biggest risk in global economy: Underperforming Chinese Stocks
The Biggest risk in global economy: Hype in real estate and consumer stocks
The Biggest risk in global economy: the true danger
Will there be a double dip recession?
In this article, I discussed the risk factors present in the global economy now, and explore the possibility of another recession.
Quantitative Easing
As the world economy (developed economies in particular) is struggling to recover, central banks hit the zero percent interest rate lower bound. Just as many people would believe that central banks would run out of ammunition in this liquidity trap, led by Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve, the central banks worldwide experimented an unconventional monetary policy tool now widely know as “quantitative easing”. What is it? How it works in theory? And will it work? In this three part series, I review the basics of the “quantitative easing”, and review the history of the failure to revive the economy by Bank of Japan using this strategy. Finally, I review the reasons why this strategy would not work.
How it would work
How it would not work
Why it would not/will not work
Depression now, growth later; or slow growth forever
The “great moderation” of pro-longed economic growth and prosperity in the 1990s was largely due to the expansion of credit. Here I argue that in we have two choices: either we have to speed up the deleveraging process but creating a depression now, or we provide huge support to the economy to delay the process. If we opted for the first, we would get the overall leverage down so that the economy is in a healthy footing. If we opted for the latter, the economy will never be really recovered.
How to spot Asset Bubbles?
Five criteria to identify asset bubbles
In this article, I came up with 5 practical guidelines for you to identify asset bubbles. After all, you have to spot one in order to escape from it.
Real Estate Bubble – Why should you care?
Five reasons why real estate bubble is so lethal
Real Estate Bubble itself is good, as long as it does not pop, which it always does, so it cannot be good. But just how bad it is? In this article, I summarised five major reasons why real estate is very danger, as it creates very damaging effect to the economy.
What can you make of the experience of 1997 home prices crash in Hong Kong.
To take a closer look at the danger posed by real estate bubble, I looked at the history of Hong Kong Real Estate, and discovered how the epic real estate prices drop after 1997 made Hong Kong suffered from a
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