ECRI Now Predicts Sustained Slowdown In The United States

Previously, I pointed out that the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) predicts a global industrial slowdown. This has pretty much materialised as the latest PMI from various countries, including China, United States and Europe.

Lakshman Achuthan, the Chief Economist of the ECRI, went on CNBC and discussed some of his latest view. Unfortunately, he brought some not-so-good news.

Future inflation gauge, as he pointed out, has been falling for two months, confirming Ben Bernanke’s view that inflation is transitory. Unfortunately, the economic slowdown is not transitory: US leading indicators are suggesting a sustained slowdown. This is not a soft patch, but a more sustained slowdown, and the second half rebound will not happen.

One comforting view is that he belief that there will not be another recession by the end of this year.

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About Zarathustra

Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.