Don’t be confused in believing that there’s rebalancing in China
13 April, 2012, 12:49. Posted by Zarathustra
Sheng Laiyun of the National Bureau of Statistics is quoted saying that Final Consumption Expenditure contributed to 6.2 ppt of growth, while investment contributed to 2.7 ppt, and exports made -0.8ppt of the contribution of the overall 8.1% growth for the first quarter of 2012.
So rebalancing is happening as some would interpret?
Before believing in that, please take a look at the following chart, showing retail sales growth and fixed asset investment growth (with my adjustment)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
This chart makes it clear that it is hard to believe that the numbers he dropped at the press conference is correct.
But if you want to know why he said that, this screenshot from China’s statistics database (maintained by National Bureau of Statistics) will tell you some clue. Look at what is inside “Final Consumption Expenditure”:
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About Zarathustra
Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.