Déjà vu: Citigroup Economic surprise index looks like a repeat of last year

By Walter Kurtz, Sober Look

The Citigroup economic surprise index is now clearly in the negative territory in a trend reminiscent of last year’s decline.

Source: Bloomberg

BW/Bloomberg: – The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., a gauge of how much reports differ from economists’ estimates in Bloomberg surveys, turned negative on April 25 and fell May 3 to the lowest level since September. Last year, the gauge sank below zero for the first time in five months on May 2, the day when the S&P 500 began a 19 percent drop.

Given the rising concerns out of Europe today, there is a strong possibility we may be looking at sharply higher market volatility. As discussed back in March, the VIX futures curve steepness earlier in the year seemed to be a good predictor of uncertainties in the post-LTRO environment.

This post first appeared here: Economic surprise index eerily reminiscent of last year

For more news and analysis, visit Also sprach Analyst. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Get our daily email update FOR FREE!

About Walter Kurtz

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education.