China’s PMIs: Official vs. HSBC/Markit
1 October, 2012, 12:04. Posted by Zarathustra
The official PMI and HSBC/Markit PMIs are known to have shown divergences, sometimes quite huge indeed.
The following two charts show some selected data points from the difference PMIs.
The first one is the headline PMI figures. Official PMI has been showing consistently better readings compared with HSBC/Markit for the best part of the year. In fact, HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 11 straight months, while the official PMI has only fallen below 50 for 2 months. Nevertheless, the divergence has narrowed.
Source: NBS, HSBC/Markit
Currently, we are intrigued by the differences of the new orders minus inventory measures. HSBC/Markit PMI show post-crisis low in this measure for August, and remains negative for September. Remarkably, however, the official PMI shows positive numbers for the last 3 months.
Source: NBS, HSBC/Markit
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About Zarathustra
Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.