China’s exports fell, imports fell even more in January

The General Administration of Custom of China published the latest set of trade figures.  Exports contracted by 0.5% from a year earlier, better than the market expectation of a 1.4% fall.  However, Imports contracted by 15.3% from a year earlier, which was much below the expected 3.6% contraction.  On a month-on-month basis, exports fell by 14.2% and imports fell by 22.5% before seasonal adjustment.

As a result of the weakness across the board, particularly on the imports side, trade surplus unexpectedly widened to US$27.28 billion from US$16.52 billion in December, while the market was expecting a contraction to US$10.4 billion.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Source: General Administration of Customs

While the Chinese New Year factor is in play for January, the surprising thing in this data appears on imports, which contacted at a much faster rate than exports.  I would hesitate to read into it too much, but it could suggest weakness in domestic demand, or, in other words, the slowing of the economy.

Source: General Administration of Customs

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About Zarathustra

Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.