China: Trade Surplus Shrank In August
10 September, 2011, 17:24. Posted by ZarathustraTags: Economy, Trade
The General Administration of Custom of China published the latest set of trade figures. Trade surplus for August decreased 44% from US$31.5 billion in June to US$17.5 billion vs. consensus of US$24.1 billion. On an year-on-year basis, the surplus decreased by 10.9%.
Exports jumped 24.5% from a year earlier to US$173.3 billion vs. market expectation of a 21.0% rise, while imports increased by 27.5% from a year earlier to US$155.6 billion vs. market expectation of a 21.0% rise. On seasonally adjusted basis, exports grew by 20.7% yoy, while imports grew by 25.1% yoy. On a month-on-month basis, exports decreased by 1.0%, while imports increased by 8.3%.
Source: General Administration of Customs
Both Import and Export growths increased more than expected on an year-on-year basis, yet imports growth on a month-on-month basis is certainly more impressive. As always, I don’t usually read too much into one-month of data, but in this respect, it suggests that the economy is still robust for the time being. On the export side, however, even though we have a stronger than expected annual growth rate, export is down on a month-on-month basis. We do know that external demand might have been weakening due to the slowdown in the developed countries, and we have had a sub-50 new export order index within the PMI, indicating contraction of exports demand. Taken as a whole, I believe it is more of a mixed picture.
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About Zarathustra
Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.
