China’s rail cargo volume declined further in July29 August, 2012, 17:13. Posted by Zarathustra
One of the preferred gauges of economic activities by our dear vice premier Li Keqiang has just turned really ugly.
Rail cargo volume growth, as we noted last month, turned negative for the first time since the recovery in June. The latest number for July is getting even more ugly.
Cargo volume transported by railways amounted to 305 million tonnes for July 2012, or 8.2% below the same month a year ago according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics. Rail cargo volume growth for July has worsen from –3.1% yoy in June, and it was the biggest decline since March 2009. Meanwhile, other mode of transportation which do not have tight correlation with GDP growth continue to grow randomly, from 13.2% yoy growth of highways to –3.4% yoy of aviation.
The chart below shows mainly rail cargo volume year-on-year change and GDP growth. As you can see, it has just turned even uglier in July.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
This confirms other indicators we saw for July and August so far that economic activities do not appear to have finally found the bottom.