China Exports Growth Slowed In October
10 November, 2011, 12:51. Posted by ZarathustraTags: Economy, Trade
The General Administration of Custom of China published the latest set of trade figures. First, on a month-on-month basis, both exports and imports fell. Exports fell by 7.2% in October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or –1.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while imports fell by 9.5% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, or +3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis.
On an year-on-year basis, exports increased by 15.9% vs. consensus of 16.1%, while imports increased by 28.7% vs. consensus of 22.2%. Trade surplus widened from US$14.4 billion to US$17.03 bullion in October, well below the expectation of US$25.75 billion.
Not surprisingly, as the European debt crisis a.k.a. death spiral intensifies, exports growth to the US growths from 9.8% yoy in September to 7.5% yoy in October.
Source: General Administration of Customs
Here is yet another set of unimpressive data from China. Even though trade balance bounced back slightly, exports have fallen by 7.2% before seasonal adjustment, and 1.4% with seasonal adjustment. The latest set of data once again reminds us of the weak global outlook, particularly in Europe. The good news is that imports are holding up well, so it appears that domestic demand is relatively intact for the time being. Whether it can still hold up well in the coming months and quarters would depend on how much slower the economy can get, and in particular, when the hard landing scenario is going to be materialised.
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About Zarathustra
Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.
