Chart: the strong seasonality of China’s official PMI24 May, 2012, 12:21. Posted by Zarathustra
We noted earlier that there has been a huge divergence between HSBC/Markit China’s manufacturing PMI and the official one (and for that matter, the official PMI with the actual industrial production).
One of the reasons could very well be the seasonality of the official numbers.
Despite the claim by the National Bureau of Statistics that their numbers are seasonally adjusted, obvious seasonality can still be observed. In particular, official PMI almost always rose in the beginning of the year (more often from February onwards), then often hit the year’s peaks in April (sometimes in March). There were usually another upward bump in September, albeit less strong than the April’s peak.
Source: NBS/China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing
If this gives you any good guidance, the official PMI for May will probably plunge quite considerably, and the gap between the official PMI and the private sector PMI would be closed.