Also sprach Analyst

Investment Analysis, China Economy, Global Economy, Real Estate and Financials

Home > Economy > China > BofA ML Global Fund Manager Survey: 16% thinks China will have hard landing

BofA ML Global Fund Manager Survey: 16% thinks China will have hard landing

16 November, 2011, 0:50. Posted by
Tags: ,

This could well be the chart of the day.  Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey, conducted between 4 November and 10 November, asked 188 managers a new question on fund managers expectation on whether China will face a hard landing.

The result: only 16% of the fund managers think there will be hard landing (defined as sub-7% growth of real GDP).

image

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Curiously, Chinese real estate market crash is ranked as the second biggest ‘tail risk’.


For more news and analysis, visit Also sprach Analyst. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
More Subscription options available

Like this article? Share it with your friends with the buttons below!

About Zarathustra

Zarathustra: Founder and Managing Editor of Also sprach Analyst. Once an analyst, now an investor and entrepreneur. Based in Hong Kong, but Londoner at heart.

  • FrParlentAuxFr

    There  is just a problem  with that, IMF did a study back in April 2008 showing the correlation between decline in housing and overall economy, it is large and it consistently results in recessions. Here for the believers that central authority can deliver a “this time it´s different outcome” to a bubble burst.

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/pdf/c3.pdf

  • FrParlentAuxFr

    Here is what you find in page of the report “Moreover, in the current housing downturn, a few countries have so far been able to withstand a sharp reversal of the previous housing boom without going into a recession. In particular, in the United states, Ireland, Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Canada, the contribution of residential investment to the weakness of GDP growth over the past year has been much larger than during the typical year before a recession over the past three decades.”

    “All recessions in the United States over the past 35 years, except the recession of the late 1970s, were preceded by a slowdown in residential investment of intensity at least equal to the one experienced since mid-2006″.