Economy
The latest analysis and updates on global economy. China, US, UK, Europe, and the rest of the world.
Standing by for the China growth hiccough, then buy with both hands
“I’ll wait for the hiccough and buy with both hands.”
Monitoring China’s slowdown in real time The slowdown of the Chinese economy is manifested by decline in SHIBOR swap rate in real time.
Morgan Stanley’s desperate attempt to be bullish on China’s equities Morgan Stanley is making a desperate attempt to be bullish on Chinese equities, mainly because they looked very cheap.
Italian 10-year yield back at 6% as euro crisis continues Following the announcement of yet another election in Greece, peripheral debts are trading lower, and Italy’s 10-year yield is back at 6%.
New loans at Chinese big 4 banks almost zero so far in May New loans at the 4 biggest Chinese banks for the first two weeks of May were almost zero, suggesting very weak demand for credit.
China recorded capital outflow in April 2012 The latest statistics on the forex position shows that excluding trade surplus, money flow has turned hugely negative in April.
Greece is headed for another election, Eurozone exit is now the central case of consensus Greece fails to form a government after the latest election. As a result, there will be yet another election to be held soon.
Economy, United States. 15 May, 2012, 21:05
US consumer price index was flat in April (with some other charts) CPI was flat for April, while core inflation was up 0.2% on the month. Also include charts of capacity utilisaion.
Eurozone GDP was flat in first quarter 2012 The Eurozone narrowly avoided recession as Germany’s growth in Q1 came in much better than expected.
China’s debt deflation: Wenzhou edition The queue of people repaying loans in Wenzhou could very well mean that debt deflation is a reality in at least parts of China.
What will happen when Greece leaves the Eurozone? We don’t know what will exactly happen after Greece leaves the Eurozone, except that it is going to look ugly.
As Euro crisis intensifies again, Spanish yield is making new high With the Greek political indecision heightens uncertainty, the euro crisis intensifies with Spanish and Italian yields moving higher.
Has debt deflation started already in China? With deposits falling from time to time with low loan growth and falling money supply, debt deflation, if not already happened, could happen soon.
China’s monetary policy: where it stands now With reserve requirement ratio at 20%, there is much room to cut. Meanwhile, real interest rate has become positive again.
People’s Bank of China cuts reserve requirement ratio by 50bps after ugly data The People’s Bank of China just announced that the reserve requirement ratio will be reduced by 50 basis points.
Standing by for the China growth hiccough, then buy with both hands 
China economy: 2012 and beyond 
Bailout From China Should Be The Last Thing Europe Wants China Economy: More Worrying Signs 
Between Hard Landing And Not Landing 
China Economy: Risk Of Hard Landing Increases 
There Is More Debt In China Than We Can Possibly Know 
“This Time Is Different” Syndrome In China 10 Reasons To Short China 
