Archive for June, 2012
File not found. Grexit is costly, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible
The fact that a Greek exit is disastrous doesn’t appear to be a sufficiently powerful reason to justify that Grexit will not happen.
Who cares? In the long run, we will be all dead
On a long-enough time horizon, stock will rise. But why should you care about the long-term when the risks in the coming 2 years are so huge?
China’s FX reserve accumulation and EURUSD
For the past 5 years or so, the pace of China’s FX reserve accumulation seems to be slightly correlated with the strength of Euro.
Charts: Eurozone sectoral balances, periphery vs. core
Here are some charts of how the sectoral balances of a number of countries in the eurozone evolved prior and during the euro crisis.
The n-th discussion of why austerity makes matter worse for Europe
The analysis shows that growth is a major factor in explaining periphery vs. core yields, and growth makes debt reduction much easier.
George Soros on the political bubble of the European Union
George Soros talks about the bubble of European integration, and that Germany and the Bundesbank have 3 months time to save Euro.
CHART: US Dollar Index, 2012 vs. 1996
Here is a chart comparing the performance of US dollar index of today and some 16 years ago.
CHART: Hong Kong/China mega-bear market update
Here is an update of how the bear markets of the post-2007 equities market bubble in Hong Kong and China are playing out compared to other notable bubbles.
China, Financials. 2 June, 2012, 0:25
There was a Bank run in China just now
The bust of a company which has been running what looks like a Ponzi scheme has triggered a bank run in a city in China.
China, Financials. 1 June, 2012, 19:49
National Audit Office confirms ridiculous lending practices of Chinese Banks
The National Audit Office investigated some improper lending practices in two of Chinese banks.
Chart: Euro area unemployment rate at 11.0% in April 2012
Euro area unemployment remains stable at the euro era high of 11.0%, while unemployment rate rise in Italy.
Macau casino revenue growth slows to 7.3% yoy in May
Macau casino revenue growth has fallen to 7.3% yoy in May, the slowest since July 2009, pointing to further weakness in the Chinese economy.
Chart: Asian Currencies under pressure amid global risks
Asian currencies are already suffering from the intensification of Euro crisis while the US dollar emerges as the only winner.
HSBC/Markit China’s manufacturing PMI falls further in May
HSBC/Markit China’s manufacturing PMI shows that manufacturing continues to contract, and at a faster pace.
China’s May manufacturing PMI misses estimate
China’s manufacturing PMI misses estimates for May, with very weak new orders and rising inventory.