Archive for May, 2012
File not found. Chart: Chinese Yuan/ Renminbi is falling
It is now obvious that Chinese Yuan is depreciatin against the US dollar as the Chinese economy headed towards hard landing.
China, Real Estate. 31 May, 2012, 12:40
Land sales revenue at 3-year low in 20 Chinese cities
Land sales revenue has hit a 3-year low in May in 20 top Chinese cities as the real estate bubble burst.
Italy’s recession is getting really BAD
While all eyes are now on Spain’s banks recapitalisation and Greek election, Italy’s recession is getting really severe.
China’s think tank: we will not be that stupid to stimulate the economy
Economist at the State Council’s Development Research Centre said China won’t be that stupid to massively stimulate economy.
If the stimulus is small, China’s economic growth will be much lower
If China still want to target 7-8% growth per annum to perpertuity, the stimulus they are going to put in has to be even larger than the last one.
Greece is already out of the Eurozone in all but name
Trading partners of Greece are treating Greece as if it were already not part of the European Monetary Union.
Chart: short China, long US
Here is a chart showing that major Hong Kong/China stock indices have hugely underperformed S&P 500 for more than a year now.
Top 5 delusional ideas China bulls have
Here are some of the craziest delusional ideas from some of the most delusional China bulls.
Global addiction to government stimulus
The world market is now so addicted to government stimulus all over the world. The question is whether it is possible to break this dependence.
WATCH: Victor Shih on China’s local government debts
Victor Shih talks to Credit Suisse on the Chinese local government debts and its impact on the financial system.
CICC: Corporate sector deleveraging is happening in China
CICC believes that corporate China is under pressure to deleverage, and that will be very negative for economic growth.
What fiscal union and joint euro bond entail
Eurobond and fiscal union imply that surplus countries will have to “subsidise” deficits country, practically forever.
Chart: Internal vs. External Devaluation
Internal devaluation or austerity is much more painful for average citizens than external devaluation or currency depreciation.
China’s failed gamble for growth
That RMB4 trillion stimulus turns out to be a failed gamble.
Chinese government approves investment in a steel project
Government approves a deal of steel project investment that destroy 6.14 mn tonnes of annual capacity when there is 200+ mn tonnes of excess capacity.
It’s official: China’s new loans will fall short of government’s target
Officials are confirming what we have already known about weak credit demand in China, and the loan target will likely be missed this year.
Chart: Another reason that Chinese yuan has to fall
When US dollar strengthens, that means Chinese yuan starts to strengthen against the Euro, which is one of the biggest trading partners.
Economy, United Kingdom. 24 May, 2012, 16:36
United Kingdom is in an even deeper recession
The second estimate shows that the UK economy contracts by 0.3% in the first quarter, revised down from a 0.2% contraction.
French, German flash manufacturing PMIs and German IFO miss estimates
French and German flash PMIs, Eurozone flash PMI and German IFO Business Climate Index all missed estimates.
Countdown begins: Grexit on 1 January 2013, according to Citi
Willem Buiter of Citi is now predicting a specific date for the Greek exit of the Eurozone (Grexit): 1 January 2013.