Archive for April, 2012
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China, Real Estate. 19 April, 2012, 12:04
Another real estate developer in China filed for bankruptcy
Yet another small real estate developer just filed for bankruptcy. This time in Guangdong.
Markets, Rates and Bonds. 18 April, 2012, 22:38
John Paulson is bearish on Europe and is placing bets that bulls place
John Paulson is making expressing his bearish views by shorting German Bunds, which is the trade that bulls have been doing.
Wealth Effect: Housing vs. Stocks
Case, Quigley and Shiller suggested that the wealth effect from housing on consumption is more significant that stocks.
Diversification of foreign reserve: the stock-flow consistent model
A three-country stock-flow consistent simulation suggests that if China diversifies its FX reserve into Euro, it’s going to be bad for Europe.
Korean Central Bank to buy Chinese stocks?
The Korean Central Bank is going to diversify its foreign exchange reserve into Chinese stocks, after they bought gold at high prices last year.
Chongqing: an illustration of China’s unsustainable growth model
The flaws of over-reliance of debts and investment in the Chongqing model is revealed, and this is likely to be just a tip of the iceberg.
In China, among 100 government officials, 101 of them are corrupt
Bo Xilai is just a tip of an iceberg. One can also speculate that over-investment in China has something to do with corruption.
Chinese Yuan drops after trading band increased
Chinese Yuan weakens after the trading band is increased. Meanwhile, EURUSD dropped below 1.30 for a minute.
Curiously, people in the ghost city Ordos are leaving
As underground lending went bust and real estate market went dead, people are leaving the city that did not have many people to start with.
George Soros on theory of reflexivity and why the Euro is flawed
George Soros talks about the theory of reflexivity, and why Eurozone is fundamentally flawed.
PBOC to allow more flexibility for Chinese Yuan exchange rate
The People’s Bank of China will increased the trading band of Chinese yuan from ±0.5% to ±1% from next Monday onwards.
Q/Q Seasonally-adjusted annual growth rate of GDP is below 7.5% already
The first quarter annualised growth rate for China is already below 7.5%. In other words, growth might have been below target.
Don’t be confused in believing that there’s rebalancing in China
While the officials told us that consumption contributed to 6.2ppt of the 8.1% GDP growth, take that with a grain of salt.
China’s GDP grew by 8.1% in the first quarter 2012, missing estimates
China’s first quarter GDP grew by 8.1% yoy, below consensus. Other data give mixed pictures on where the economy is.
No matter how fast or slow China is growing, don’t cheer nor mourn
No matter how fast or slow the Chinese economy is growing at the present moment, it is important to keep in mind that those huge problems remain.
China Monetary Statistics For March 2012
China’s money supply and loan growth picked up in March 2012, while FX reserve reversed the loss in the last quarter of 2011.
Life & Arts, Music. 12 April, 2012, 14:58
Sergey Malov plays Bach on a violoncello da spalla
Sergey Malov plays Bach’s Cello Suite on a weird instrument called violoncello da spalla.
China, Real Estate. 12 April, 2012, 12:15
Figures don’t lie, but liars figure (…and more empty shopping malls)
Misallocation of capital in China is manifesting everywhere in forms of unoccupied residential housing and empty shopping malls (now our favourite).
Euro crisis: it didn’t end, and it won’t
All eurozone countries can only balance their budgets if eurozone run trade surplus with the rest of the world, and it is not clear why that will surely happen.
The only country in worse shape than Spain…
Here’s how bad European countries are compared with Spain. As you can see, pain is in Spain.